Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 14.056940 15.943833 18.104420 20.787414 24.066564 27.993174 33.127531
2025-03-16 11.321468 13.565745 16.351842 20.144477 25.304865 32.293106 42.877190
2025-03-23 9.942016 12.351525 15.509947 20.096392 26.852226 36.928216 54.207965
2025-03-30 8.714726 11.095866 14.336301 19.262904 26.956871 39.319117 62.794489
2025-04-06 7.724243 10.016641 13.225806 18.280838 26.550352 40.676415 69.975199
2025-04-13 6.986648 9.201783 12.378599 17.539257 26.337485 42.235472 78.127287
2025-04-20 7.027492 9.492766 13.171969 19.467543 30.998868 54.066464 115.421170
2025-04-27 6.762031 9.296010 13.184998 20.093027 33.439117 62.338920 150.611834
2025-05-04 6.256896 8.687786 12.478732 19.360572 33.084176 64.284345 168.590066
2025-05-11 6.051663 8.525813 12.475880 19.882428 35.381335 73.417027 221.306310
2025-05-18 5.726791 8.147495 12.074280 19.603048 35.900599 78.184201 263.172448
2025-05-25 5.447621 7.822166 11.732659 19.392091 36.529704 83.547192 316.929330
2025-06-01 5.234384 7.603190 11.579004 19.581297 38.271938 93.548551 423.362155
2025-06-08 4.921830 7.199644 11.067489 18.985039 37.986343 97.001666 498.117849
2025-06-15 4.717828 6.964174 10.836609 18.940974 39.106613 106.093034 659.175612
2025-06-22 4.434318 6.576082 10.296914 18.173664 38.148210 106.947090 743.314154
2025-06-29 4.155316 6.181467 9.719769 17.268161 36.658438 105.136577 793.016291
2025-07-06 3.925674 5.861177 9.261904 16.583350 35.681819 105.199576 880.548934
2025-07-13 4.015335 6.100130 9.872201 18.362154 42.270889 144.203354 2348.243170
2025-07-20 3.954046 6.066981 9.955154 18.937873 45.436251 170.605985 5038.347209
2025-07-27 3.762754 5.789866 9.538240 18.263632 44.356391 171.513802 6320.353162
2025-08-03 3.703461 5.749128 9.589496 18.744098 47.339596 201.827331 19343.952111
2025-08-10 3.574477 5.574001 9.357052 18.486930 47.668615 214.520330 44863.045480